Twelve metros scored overnight on your weights. Des Moines has held the top of the shortlist for three straight runs, and one redline risk still needs a mitigation before you sign anything.
Founder weights · concentration 0.25 · cost 0.25 · regulatory 0.15 · demand 0.15 · political 0.10 · talent 0.10
Thin chain presence in specialty coffee (HHI 0.11), state tax posture +2.1 points vs. national median, prime-corner rent down 3.1% year over year.
Lowest cost base on the shortlist and a thin incumbent field. The catch is demand, which scores 47, weakest of the top five. Expect a slower revenue ramp than Des Moines.
Strongest demand (93) and talent (88) in the set, but rent and wages drifted +14% over three years. At $180K capital, margin sensitivity is the real risk here.
“Proceed, with a 3rd-Street lease strategy. Thin chain presence, a tax posture above the median and rent that is falling, not rising. The highest-margin venue on your shortlist for a $180K single-location operator.”
composite = 0.25×92 + 0.15×78 + 0.25×88 + 0.15×64 + 0.10×80 + 0.10×58 = 80.1
| Rent (1,200 sf × $22.20) | $26,640 |
|---|---|
| Labor (4.0 FTE, loaded) | $178,830 |
| COGS (28.0% of revenue) | $167,550 |
| Utilities & energy | $14,230 |
| Marketing, insurance, other opex | $124,890 |
| Model EBITDA | $86,260 · 14.4% |
2 of 3 deep-dives left this month. Scouting a second city or a different venture? A new brief starts from your NAICS code, your capital and your weights.
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